Live Market Commentary
by Gary - gary@econintersect.com - RSS Feed
Global Economic Intersection
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Live Market: Wednesday 02.22.2012
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4:30 All in all - a VERY boring trading day except for the last minutes of the closing. The red volume was moderate and markets fell a bit. Then the bulls step in and bought the "dip". Will make this the last post for the day. Be on your toes as all hell could break loose tomorrow - drive home carefully. The DOW.  The 500.  Light oil.  Economic calendar for tomorrow.  ----------- 2:45 @zerohedge:  ' All is not resolved' is how Morgan Stanley's Arnaud Mares begins his latest diatribe on the debacle that is occurring in Europe. While a disorderly default seems to have been avoided (for now), the Greek problem (as we have discussed extensively) remains unsolved as debt sustainability seems questionable at best, economic recovery a remote hope, and the growing political tensions across Europe (and its people) grow wider. Critically, Mares addresses the seeming complacency towards a Greek exit from the euro area noting that it is no small matter and has dramatic consequences (specifically a la Lehman, the unintended consequences could be catastrophic). ------------ 2:42 @dailyfx: "While gold made that big break above its double top (and 61.8% Fib) at 1760, silver has yet to overtake its earlier swing high at 34.50." ------------ 2:38 Gold has surged up as seen in this 10 min chart. The DOW is falling now at 12950 and the 500 at 1359. (On low volume I might add)  ------------- 1:05 The 500 is doing nothing, the volume is extremely low - what more can I say? I do expect the markets to do "something" in a BIG way soon. When it happens it will happen quickly and without prior warning. Something or some event will send the markets down and the volume up. Most likely DaBoyz will orchestrate the "event" during the night. We, the cash crowd, will learn about it when we look at the morning pre-market and futures. The question at hand is what can we do to prepare ourselves? (10 min 500 chart)  ----------- 12:12 Dow 13,000: Warning Sign In Disguise? by Josh Ortner "If history is any guide for the future, it seems a pullback is imminent, and possibly a more serious correction could be coming. So it seems Dow 13,000 may be a warning in disguise for investors." ----------- 11:44 Several days of the 500 from the 16th. - today's 500 is currently easing down, but the volume is still low so it doesn't much in my opinion.  ----------- 11:15 @telegraph: "Time for a quick poll: will Greek bond holders voluntarily accept a 75pc loss, or will new legislation designed to force the haircuts need to be brought into play? We mentioned earlier that the new law could demand that 2/3 of bondholders agree in order to allow a forced haircut to take effect." (results below)  ---------- 11:09 Current prices.  ---------- 11:07 @SA: " 11:00 AM On the hour: Dow -0.1%. 10-yr +0.19%. Euro +0.02% vs. dollar. Crude flat at $106.25. Gold -0.16% to $1755.75."----------- 11:04 Media Headlines Will Lead You To RuinFeb 21, 2012 Lance Roberts  It's quite amazing actually. Two weeks ago Barron's ran the cover page of "Dow 15,000". Over the weekend Alan Abelson ran a column titled "Everyone In The Pool". Today, CNBC leads with "Dow 13,000 May Finally Lure Investors Back Into Stocks".Unfortunately, for most investors, the CNBC headline is probably right. Investors, on the whole, have a tendency to do exactly the opposite of what they should do when it comes to investing: "Buy High and Sell Low." More... ----------
10:39 Volume is picking up slightly, mostly red - still considered low to medium.
(5 min 500 chart)
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10:36 European markets close in an hour. European markets are lower today with shares in Germany off the most. The DAX is down 0.83% while France's CAC 40 is off 0.52% and London's FTSE 100 is lower by 0.15%.
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10:30 @zerohedge:
While today the association of real estate advertising agents known as the NAR will tell us that the home market is improving - an economic observation which we will completely ignore as any data out of the NAR is now proven to be manipulated and fraudulent.
A far better indication of the ongoing implosion in the housing market, and more importantly - the sheer powerlessness of the Fed to do anything about it - came out of the latest weekly Mortgage Brokers Association, which showed that refi applications were down 4.8% W/W, while purchases slid 2.9%, after collapsing 8.4% in the past week.
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10:26 Interesting market in that buying of the dips is occurring but profit taking comes in right after.
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10:22 Meanwhile Light oil has moved to 106.17.
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10:20 Brent popped up to 122.48 a few minutes ago as seen in this 1 min chart. This is going to put a lot of downward pressure on the markets.
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10:17 The EUR/USD pair has actually done very little since 02-15 as shown in this 1 hour chart. Actually, it looks like it is forming a triangle and preparing to break out.
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10:13 The markets dipped a bit and came back up to where they were before the housing report. The volume is disturbingly low again today. The red volume during the brief sell-off was higher than the green this morning, but still anemic and shows that there is little participation.
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10:07 @kimble:
Since April of last year the Australian $ has a decent track record of predicting when the 500 index was about to be put under pressure.
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10:04 @dailyfx: "JANUARY EXISTING HOMES SALES (JAN) ROSE TO $4.57M VS. $4.66M FORECASTED. PRIOR WAS $4.38M (REVISED FROM $4.61M)."
@SA: "Jan. Existing Home Sales: +4.3% to 4.57M vs. 4.69M expected, 4.61M prior. Total housing inventory fell 0.4% to 2.31M existing homes for sale, representing a 6.1-month supply."
Markets are falling like a rock. DOW at 12942 and the 500 at 1358.
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9:58 Markets are sloshing sideways as shown in this 5 min 500 chart.
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9:45 @marketwatch:
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9:37 The 500 is mixed so far this morning. (5 min chart)
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9:35 Brent briefly hit 122.21 a few minutes ago. (1 min chart)
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9:32 Markets are open. DOW opened at its close yesterday and is dropping rapidly. The DOW is at 12955 and the 500 is at 1360.
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9:29 @SA: "Stock futures are subdued (S&P -0.1%) following weak economic data from Europe and China that show contracting manufacturing.
Fitch cut Greece’s credit rating to C from CCC, signaling it expects imminent default.
European markets are broadly lower, while Asian bourses gain ground. Dell -6% after its sales forecast missed estimates. Still ahead: existing home sales."
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9:22 @zerohedge:
Today, without much fanfare, US debt to GDP hit 101% with the latest issuance of $32 billion in 2 Year Bonds. If the moment when this ratio went from double to triple digits is still fresh in readers minds, is because it is: total debt hit and surpassed the most recently revised Q4 GDP on January 30, or just three weeks ago. Said otherwise, it has taken the US 21 days to add a full percentage point to this most critical of debt sustainability ratios: but fear not, with just under $1 trillion in new debt issuance on deck in the next 9 months, we will be at 110% in no time.---------
9:15
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9:11 @dailyfx: "Here comes the Greek default, as previously asserted last week...Fitch Ratings takes first shot by downgrading Greece to C from CCC $EURUSD"
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9:09 @SA: "Buying the rumor that Greece is saved has been replaced by selling the fact that Greece is still "completely broke," writes ZH, noting the sharp rise (ahead of the bailout announcement) and then collapse (since) of the country's bank stock index. NBG -10.4% premarket"
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9:07 Brent is up to 121.86. (1 min chart)
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9:04 Oil at one point this morning was above 106. (10 min chart)
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9:02 Good morning. It seems like the Greek deal didn't go over too well as the SP500 futures point to a lower opening. (10 min chart)
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Live Market: Tuesday 02.21.2012
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4:08 Last post for the day see everyone tomorrow.
The 500.
The DOW
The indexes.
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4:02 Top volume for the day.
Top gainers and decliners.
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3:57 A few more minutes to go - another uneventful market day. Someone call when the volume picks up - I am going to sit out on the Econintersect landscape and watch the grass grow. Seriously, there is a Tsunami brewing out there and you had better be prepared as it is going to either make you smile or cry.
It will most likely happen in the wee hours so the "big Boys" can unload safely.
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3:51
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3:43 Gold has decided to jump up. (1 min chart) @ino: "
The price of gold jumped to a 2 1/2-week high on Tuesday as Eurozone Finance Ministers OK'd a second rescue package for Greece. U.S. traders played catch-up for the day after taking Monday off for President's Day.
Gold for April delivery closed at $1,758.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $32.60, or 1.9 percent. This is the best close since Feb. 2. Eurozone Finance Ministers early Tuesday gave a green light to a second rescue package for Greece, unlocking a 130 billion euros bailout money for the cash-strapped country.
The new bailout money would leave Greece with sufficient funds to repay a 14.5 billion euros bond due on March 20. The U.S. dollar bounced back from weekend lows, minimizing gold's hedge appeal. The greenback moved near $1.32 against the euro, recovering about a penny from Monday's lows.
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3:29 @SA: "Why the decline in demand for gasoline doesn't mean a recession: "It appears that gasoline conservation is a top priority of consumers." Ridership of mass transit is up, online retail purchases have increased, automakers are selling more fuel efficient cars, teen driving is down, and more. Vehicle miles rose 1.3% Y/Y in December but slipped 1.2% for full-year 2011."
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3:19
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3:15 The Dark Lord's of DaBoyz gang are running the show right now and the cash crowd can't even begin to guess what they are going to do next. When the volume does pick up, it means the money managers have decided what to do and you had better be on their train or get run over by it.
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2:42 500 futures are taking a nose-dive.
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2:32 @telegraph: " Economist Yanis Varoufakis is talking live on Channel 4 News now from Athens on the "madness" of the Greek debt deal.
 There is not going to be a flow of cash. Whatever cash flows, it will flow from the IMF, the ECB... to Greece's creditors. None of it is going to come here. This country is entering deeper and deeper into a coma that begun quite a few months ago. I'm concerned that Europe is attempting another appeasement... of a crisis that goes well beyond the limits of Greece.
Greece is a sideshow these days. The crisis is growing bigger and stronger and more menacing. ------------
2:22 Red Flag: Market Sentiment by Bill L.
". . . investors have become very optimistic, which is typically the main ingredient in a recipe for a correction. I've been looking for a correction on a simple technical basis for the last several weeks. I've been a bit surprised that the market has held up, but in doing so it has pushed several measures of sentiment to extreme readings. In my experience, this typically means that instead of a simple technical correction, the market could be facing a much deeper correction (10% or more)."
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2:15 @dailyfx: "S&P 500 emini futures have closed the weekend gap and continue to produce lower intraday highs and lows. This is painful if you're a bull."
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2:08 Markets are drifting sideways UNDER LOW VOLUME with a negative slant. WTI crude has made new highs.
(1 min chart)
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11:47 European markets finished lower today with shares in Germany leading the region. The DAX is down 0.53% while France's CAC 40 is off 0.30% and London's FTSE 100 is lower by 0.22%.
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11:03 I am taking a stand here. This is a fake bull run and I am not buying into it until we can see some meaningful volume. Big moves comes when there is participation and right now everyone is standing around waiting.
The DOW is at 12990 and the 500 is at 1366.
(500 10 min chart)
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10:44 @dailyfx:
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10:27 Markets are wandering. DOW at 12958 and the 500 at 1363. What is important is the Brent oil prices are skyrocketing.
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10:02 The Improbable Greece Plan by Felix Salmon
"Greece is now officially a ward of the international community. It has no real independence when it comes to fiscal policy any more, and if everything goes according to plan, it’s not going to have any independence for many, many years to come."
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9:53 The volume is just not enough to call anything at this point. Sit on your hands and let the HFT's and Darkpool operators, best know as DaBoyz, do their thing. Until the big boys decide to make their move the cash crowd will remain in the dark and along for the ride.
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9:50 The first sign of weakness is starting to show. Red volume, while low, has picked up. The DOW is off its high at 12945 and the 500 is at 1362.
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9:49 TZA's total movement has been 0.14 points and TNA total has been 0.60. No one is doing anything.
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9:44 The 10 minute volume is really low today, lowest I have seen in weeks - that can not be a good sign. Even oil is starting to react.
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9:38 What is the market going to do? You would think after all this time with this Greek Tragedy going on the markets would be overjoyed and start its rise to new heights after not defaulting. Opps , sorry the default comes later in the month.
When the "Hopium" served out by the Merkozy Duo stops working the hangover is going to be a real market maker. Hard to believe that so many folks have bought into this hype.
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9:37 @SA: "At the open: Dow +0.23% to 12980. S&P +0.24% to 1365. Nasdaq +0.08% to 2586.
Treasurys: 30-year +0.06%. 10-yr +0.1%. 5-yr +0.05%.
Commodities: Crude +1.11% to $104.75. Gold +1.23% to $1747.15.
Currencies: Euro +0.02% vs. dollar. Yen +0.07%. Pound +0.32%."
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9:34 The DOW is at 12980, the 500 at 1364, SSO at 54.84 and SPY at 136.71.
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9:32 The 500 opened up, but muted in low volume.
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9:29 @SA: "AM Market preview: Stocks are poised to open modestly higher after European finmins agree to a second Greek rescue package. S&P futures +0.3%. Most European indexes show weakness after rising yesterday in anticipation of the bailout. Nymex oil futures +2.5% to near $105 after Iran refused to ship oil to France and Britain. Wal-Mart -2.9% on lower earnings, but Home Depot +3.2%."
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9:12 The premarket SP500 is up but the markets appear to be mixed.
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9:04 @telegraph: " While analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland say in a note today that if credit default swaps are triggered, it could create another "Lehman wave" of smaller banks going bust. Here's more:
Preferential treatment of the official sector [such as the ECB] vs. private bondholders creates a notion of implicit subordination; a negative for other European government bonds (EGBs).
We still expect a CDS trigger when the bond swap completes on the 11th of March, and there remains a lurking risk that if some of the CDS writers were to default (especially the small banks), it could create another 'Lehman wave'.
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9:01 @dailyfx: "By no stretch of the imagination does the Greek bailout mean a default is off the table.
Next big European letdown - March 2. Also known as a Euro-zone summit."
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8:53 @ft: "
Eurozone backing for €130bn package fails to spur risk assets -----------
8:49 @zerohedge: "
For Greece, "Tomorrow" Has ArrivedThe day dawns with a deal for Greece that is full of smoke and mirrors; lies and deceptions.----------
8:47 @SA: "Jan. Chicago Fed National Activity Index: +0.22 vs. +0.54 prior (revised from +0.17). Three of the four broad categories of indicators improved from December, and only the consumption & housing category’s contribution was negative in January."
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8:43 The 8:30 economic report. @dailyfx: "$USD: CHICAGO FEDERAL NATIONAL ACTIVITY INDEX (JAN) PRINT 0.22 VS 0.21 EXPECTED. PRIOR WAS 0.54 (REVISED FROM 0.17)."
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8:38 @telegraph: "
 Stock markets are slightly down this morning. The FTSE 100 in London is currently down 0.3pc at 5,927.21, while the CAC 40 in Paris is trading 0.31pc lower at 3,461.87 and Frankfurt's DAX 30 is down 0.25pc at 6,930.63.
As City editor Richard Fletcher says in this morning's City briefing:
Buy on the rumour sell on the fact - goes the old stock market adage.
Earlier this morning, Greek economist Yanis Varoufakis told BBC News that leaders were still in "big denial over Greece". He insisted:
Greece has now officially defaulted. Europe has managed to find a euphemism for it – it’s calling it a second bail-out.
He stressed the importance of interest rates matching the country's rate of growth, adding:
...if those numbers are out of sync, then you have a disaster on your hands.
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8:33 Oil is up and into the recessionary area.
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8:31 @telegraph: "In a nutshell:
• Eurozone leaders have agreed a programme that will cut Greece's debt pile to 120.5pc of GDP in 2020. This ensures IMF participation. The IMF will announce how much it is willing to cough-up in March.
• To get to this magic 120pc figure, private investors will take a 53.5pc hit on their holdings of Greek debt - more than the 50pc agreed in October. According to JP Morgan, this represents a real loss of 75pc (compared with 70pc on a 50pc haircut). This will reduce privately held Greek debt by €107bn.
• Investors have also accepted lower initial interest rates on new bonds. Rates will start at 2pc and increase to 3pc between 2015 and 2020. From February 2020, the rate will be 4.3pc. Until now, discussions had assumed a coupon of 3pc between now and 2020, rising to 3.75pc from 2020 to maturity.
• Eurozone governments will take a further hit on the loans made to Greece in its initial 2010 bail-out.
• The ECB will also pass profits it made from its purchases of Greek bonds back to Athens via central banks.
• To make sure all goes smoothly, Big Brother will be watching. Permanently. The troika (made up of the ECB, IMF and EU), will have an "enhanced and permanent presence on the ground in Greece" to make sure the country holds up its end of the bargain.
• An 'escrow' account will be set up to service Greek debts. It will hold three months debt interest payments at any time.
And they all lived happily ever after...again.
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8:29 @telegraph: "It promised to be a long night in Brussels, and after a 14 hour marathon meeting, Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the Eurogroup, emerged with International Monetary Fund head Christine Lagarde, EU Commissioner Olli Rehn and eurozone bail-out fund boss Klaus Regling to tell us all will be OK in euroland.
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8:18 Good morning. 500 futures were up yesterday and this morning but seem to be trending down. I expect the market top open mixed.
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