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Stratfor: The Decline of the Colorado River
An amendment to a standing water treaty between the United States and Mexico has received publicity over the past six months as an example of progress in water sharing agreements. But the amendment, called Minute 319, is simply a glimpse into … Continue reading
Investment and Consumption
by Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets I have been arguing for several years that once China begins the adjustment process, which I expect to characterize the ten-year period of the current administration, growth rates must slow significantly. My expectation for long-term growth … Continue reading
Posted in China, Economics, macroeconomics
Tagged China, consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, inflation, michael pettis, PPI, recession, recovery
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The Liquidity Trap In the IS/MY Model (“Sitges Equation”)
by Dirk Ehnts, Econoblog101 I have recently built a small model which builds on the “Sitges” balance of payments identity. “Sitges” – originally a little town close to Barcelona – helps me to remember that the change in debt of … Continue reading
Posted in Government, Studies, macroeconomics
Tagged consumer confidence, Dirk Ehnts, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, government spending, inflation
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March Factory Order Rebound Doesn’t Change Dismal Trend
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner New factory orders (actual, adjusted for inflation and not seasonally adjusted), which is a broader measure than durable goods orders because it includes non-durables, dropped 3.3% on a year to year basis in March. … Continue reading
Housing Smoke and Mirrors (4) – “The Zombie in the Room”
Written by Adam Whitehead, KeySignals.com In Housing Smoke and Mirrors (3)[i] it was suggested that there were some anomalies, in the general pattern of improving mortgage delinquencies, that deserved closer scrutiny.
Trickle Down Corporate Profits – NOT!
Written by Steven Hansen This week Personal Consumption data was released showing weak (but above expectations) growth.
Posted in Weekly Economic Summary, aa syndication
Tagged consumer spending, corporate profits, Economy, GDP, PCE, recovery, Steven Hansen, unemployment, weekly review
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Everyone’s Missing the Bigger Picture in the Reinhart-Rogoff Debate
by Washington’s Blog, Washington’s Blog The “Excel Spreadsheet Error” in Context You’ve heard that an incredibly influential economic paper by Reinhart and Rogoff (RR) – widely used to justify austerity – has been “busted” for “excel spreadsheet errors” and other … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Federal Reserve, Government, money
Tagged consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, inflation, ponzi finance, private debt, recession, Washington’s Blog
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Feedback Loops, Delusions and Crises
by Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets Early this month Martin Wolf had another of his very interesting articles, this time on China, which I think suggests some of the concerns we must have about the upcoming adjustment. Wolf argues that it … Continue reading
Posted in China, Economics, Eurozone, money
Tagged China, consumer confidence, Economy, GDP, michael pettis, world economy
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Is the Federal Reserve Breeding the Next Financial Crisis?
by Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and Alessandro Rebucci This article was originally published in Voxeu.org Many economists think that the US Federal Reserve’s loose monetary stance in the 2000′s fueled the US housing bubble. Is the Fed thus responsible for the Global … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Federal Reserve
Tagged Alessandro Rebucci, Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, home sales, housing, recession, recovery, Voxeu
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Inequality – Both Economic and In Access to Liberty and Justice – Skyrockets to Historic Levels
by Washington’s Blog, Washington’s Blog Poverty Spikes In America … While the Government Throws Money at the Super-Elite AP reports that the U.S. is seeing the highest spike in poverty since the 1960s, and notes: According to a report by … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Employment, money
Tagged Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, inequality, personal income, Washington’s Blog
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Why Is Kenneth Rogoff Puzzled by Low Interest Rates?
by Dirk Ehnts, Econoblog101 In an article published at Project Syndicate, Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff writes about the long mystery of low interest rates. Here is the main issue: A lot has changed since 2005. We had the financial crisis, … Continue reading
Posted in Banking News, Economics, Federal Reserve, macroeconomics, money
Tagged Dirk Ehnts, Economy, employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, unemployment
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Self-defeating Austerity?
by Dawn Holland and Jonathan Portes, Voxeu.org EU governments have individually embraced severe austerity programmes in an effort to avoid becoming the next Portugal. This column presents results from the National Institute Global Econometric Model suggesting that these individually rational … Continue reading
Posted in Eurozone, macroeconomics
Tagged consumer confidence, Dawn Holland, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, Jonathan Portes
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Everything You Know About Money Is Wrong
by Washington’s Blog, Washington’s Blog We Can’t Fix What We Don’t Understand Bloomberg notes this week that the conventional theory of why money was created is wrong:
Posted in macroeconomics, money
Tagged Economy, GDP, money, money and banking, Washington's Blog
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Ben Bernanke, the Rodney Dangerfield of Fed Chairmen
by Paul Kasriel, The Econtrarian First it was 2012 presidential candidate Rick Perry, who wanted to deal with Ben Bernanke’s money-printing “Texas style”. Then 2012 presidential candidate Mitt Romney indicated that Ben Bernanke had better have his personal effects packed … Continue reading
Posted in Federal Reserve, money
Tagged Economy, Federal Reserve, Paul Kasriel, recession, recovery
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Analysis of the Housing Recovery Mirage
by Keith Jurow, Capital Preservation Real Estate Report At the end of March, it was announced that the 20-city Case-Shiller Index was up 8.1% year-over-year. Nearly all housing experts declared that this was further confirmation that the housing recovery was … Continue reading
Posted in Home Sales and Home Prices
Tagged foreclosures, housing, housing market, Keith Jurow, mortgages underwater
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Government Debt and Deficits Are Not the Problem. Private Debt Is.
by Michael Hudson, New Economic Perspectives Remarks by Prof. Michael Hudson at The Atlantic’s Economy Summit, Washington DC, Wednesday, March 13, 2013. There are two quite different perspectives in the set of speeches at this conference. Many on our morning … Continue reading
Posted in Banking News, macroeconomics, money, mortgages
Tagged consumer debt, debt, Economy, GDP, michael hudson, national debt, private debt, public debt, rentier
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What About a Market Correction?
Written by Steven Hansen This week, Marc Faber (aka Dr. Doom) stated on CNBC: I don’t think the market is as overbought as it was in ’87, so I don’t expect a crash. But I think for the time being, … Continue reading
Posted in Weekly Economic Summary, aa syndication
Tagged correction, Economy, equities, forecast, GDP, markets, recovery, Steven Hansen, unemployment, weekly review
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Why Not a Quantitative Target for Quantitative Easing?
by Paul Kasriel, The Econtrarian When I should have been practicing my bass guitar in preparation for my band class Thursday evening, I, instead, watched the first few minutes of Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s post-FOMC press conference. A number of … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Federal Reserve, US Treasury, money
Tagged consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, Paul Kasriel
1 Comment
Stratfor: Disturbing Precedent in the Cyprus Bailout
By George Friedman, Founder and Chairman, Stratfor The European economic crisis has taken different forms in different places, and Cyprus is the latest country to face the prospect of financial ruin. Overextended banks in Cyprus are teetering on the brink … Continue reading
Posted in Banking News, Eurozone, aa syndication
Tagged banking, banks, Cyprus, deposits, EU, George Friedman, profit, russia, shareholders, Stratfor, Tax, usa
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