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Escaping Liquidity Traps: Lessons from the UK’s 1930s Escape
by Nicholas Crafts This article was originally published by Voxeu.org on May 12, 2013 The UK escaped a liquidity trap in the 1930s and enjoyed a strong economic recovery. This column argues that what drove this recovery was ‘unconventional’ monetary … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Government, UK, macroeconomics, money
Tagged consumer confidence, Economy, GDP, home sales, housing, inflation, Nicholas Crafts, recession, recovery, trade balance, Voxeu
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CFNAI Super Index Mixed In April 2013
Written by Steven Hansen The economy was almost statistically unchanged in April 2013 – and this index is suggesting the economy is expanding just below the historical trend rate of growth – with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) … Continue reading
Terminal Velocity (9) – “Helicopter Take-off”
Written by Adam Whitehead, KeySignals.com From Terminal Velocity (3) – “The Pyramid Scheme”[i]: Reading between the lines, it is clear that the Fed intends to maintain a large balance sheet of assets for some time; even after interest rates have … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Federal Reserve, macroeconomics, money, money and banking
Tagged Adam Whitehead, BEA, China, consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, inflation, recovery
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Japan: Exporting Deflation
by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline The evils of this deluge of paper money are not to be removed until our citizens are generally and radically instructed in their cause and consequences, and silence by their authority the interested … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Government, Japan, Trade Data, macroeconomics, money, money and banking, stock markets
Tagged consumer confidence, Economy, exports, GDP, industrial production, inflation, Japan, John Mauldin, recovery, trade balance
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Economic Zeitgeist
The Ideology to End Ideologies – A Response to Corey Robin on Nietzsche, Hayek, Mises, and Marginalism by Philip Pilkington This article was first published by Naked Capitalism (May 13, 2013) Editor’s Note: Econintersect considers this a fundamentally important discussion … Continue reading
Should You Tell Your Kid to Drop Out of High School?
Written by Steven Hansen There have been several posts over the past few weeks discussing college / university education. Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius stated: [T]he faster job growth among college graduates is entirely due to faster growth in the … Continue reading
Posted in Employment, Weekly Economic Summary, aa syndication
Tagged college, dropout, Economy, employment, GDP, high school, recovery, Steven Hansen, unemployment, university, weekly review
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Initial Claims Not Great but Not as Bad as Claimed
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner The media exhibited much consternation today as economists’ consensus guess on first time unemployment claims turned out to be way too optimistic this week. That raised two questions in my mind. Was the number … Continue reading
Posted in Employment
Tagged dol, Economy, employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, Lee Adler, recession, recovery, unemployment
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Preliminary May 2013 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Highest Since July 2007
by Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives/dshort.com The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary number for May came in at 83.7, a major advance over the April final reading of 76.4. This is the highest level since July of 2007, prior to … Continue reading
April 2013 Leading Economic Index Forecasts Continuing Economic Expansion
Written by Steven Hansen The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. improved 0.6% in April to 95.0 (2004 = 100). Overall, the index value has been slowly trending up, and one month is not a trend. This … Continue reading
Posted in LEI, aa syndication
Tagged CEI, Conference Board, economic indicator, Economy, ECRI, forecast, LEI, recovery, Steven Hansen
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May 2013 Philly Fed Business Outlook Goes Negative
Written by Steven Hansen The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey fell into negative (contraction) – after two months in positive territory. This survey has been negative for 9 of the last 13 months. Key element new orders slipped further into … Continue reading
Posted in Manufacturing, Retail & Business Sales, aa syndication
Tagged backlog, business, conditions, manufacturing, new orders, orders, Philly Fed, philly_man, Steven Hansen
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April 2013 CPI Moderates to 1.1% Year-over-Year Inflation
by Doug Short and Steven Hansen The April 2013 Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) year-over-year inflation rate fell from 1.5% to 1.1% . Core inflation (CPI less food and energy) fell slightly also from 1.9% to 1.7%. The dynamics were large … Continue reading
April 2013 Sea Container Counts Are Still Contracting
Written by Steven Hansen For the second month in a row, both import and export container counts are contracting year-over-year – comparing same months in 2012 and 2013. Economically intuitive imports however are “less bad” (but are still growing year-to-date); … Continue reading
Posted in Transport, aa syndication
Tagged container, exports, imports, rail, shipping, Steven Hansen, traffic, truck
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Schizophrenic U.S. Housing Market
Housing Smoke and Mirrors (Part 6) “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” Written by Adam Whitehead, KeySignals.com Click to enlarge We thought it would be amusing to start this discussion with the latest “Smoke … Continue reading
Self-defeating Austerity Shocks
by Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov, Voxeu.org This article was originally published by Voxeu.org (May 3, 2013) Europe’s austerity-first approach has triggered research-based efforts to evaluate the effectiveness of debt-reduction strategies. This column, based on a US empirical study, suggests … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, International Economic data, macroeconomics
Tagged austerity, consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, Fuad Hasanov, GDP, inflation, recession, recovery, Reda Cherif
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April 2013 Industrial Production Soft – But Still In a Growth Trend
Written by Steven Hansen The headlines say Industrial Production (IP) declined 0.5% in April 2013 and up 1.9% year-over-year. Econintersect‘s analysis using the unadjusted data is that IP was also showed a decline of 0.5% month-over-month but the year-over-year was … Continue reading
Export / Import Price Deflation in April 2013
Written by Steven Hansen In April 2013, year-over-year price deflation continues in import prices for 11 of the last 12 months . Export price price are also deflating this month: with imports down 0.5% month-over-month, down 2.6% year-over-year and exports … Continue reading
Posted in Prices - PPI, CPI and More, aa syndication
Tagged agriculture, BLS, commodities, export, food, import, OIL, prices, Steven Hansen
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Retail Sales Stay Right on Trend but Economists Get It Wrong Again
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner Retail sales grew modestly and on trend in April. There was no evidence of either a slowing economy or one that is overheating and about to cause conventional inflation measures to move higher. At … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Retail & Business Sales, macroeconomics
Tagged consumer confidence, CPI, Economy, Federal Reserve, gasoline, GDP, Lee Adler, retail sales, trade balance
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March 2013 Business Inventories and Sales Continues to Show Little Improvement
Written by Steven Hansen Econintersect‘s analysis of final business sales data (retail plus wholesale plus manufacturing) for March 2013 is closer to the headline data. business sales with this month’s data is continuing to trend less good (positive growth, slower … Continue reading
Housing Smoke and Mirrors (5) – “Zombie Fed”
Written by Adam Whitehead, KeySignals.com In Housing Smoke and Mirrors (4), it was suggested that the bad eggs in the 2005 and 2009 Mortgage Vintages were hatching; and creating a growing systemic threat. Click to enlarge The Federal Reserve and … Continue reading
Investment and Consumption
by Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets I have been arguing for several years that once China begins the adjustment process, which I expect to characterize the ten-year period of the current administration, growth rates must slow significantly. My expectation for long-term growth … Continue reading
Posted in China, Economics, macroeconomics
Tagged China, consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, inflation, michael pettis, PPI, recession, recovery
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